VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +22.17 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.5%76.1% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+22.17 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN29.3%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 48.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Jul 28, 08:01 PMJul 28, 08:01 PMJul 28, 08:01 PMJul 28, 08:01 PMJul 28, 08:01 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T20:01:46.457Z	48.5%	0.0%	-48.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 76.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 22.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 76.1%, gross edge 25.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 22.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.