Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +22.17 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.5%76.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+22.17 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN29.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 40.5%Marx Fair UP 56.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 08:00 PMJul 28, 08:04 PMJul 28, 08:09 PMJul 28, 08:14 PMJul 28, 08:19 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T20:00:01.823Z32.5%48.5%+16.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:01:01.070Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:01:46.457Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:04:42.645Z21.5%0.0%-21.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:09:42.173Z21.5%56.5%+35.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:10:40.526Z21.5%56.5%+35.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:11:38.678Z21.5%56.5%+35.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:12:49.224Z21.5%56.5%+35.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:13:43.625Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:14:44.237Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:15:39.041Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:16:40.849Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:16:43.395Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:17:45.659Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:18:40.251Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:19:43.368Z40.5%56.5%+16.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 76.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 22.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 76.1%, gross edge 25.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 22.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +22.17 pp Edge | AntiPredict