VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.77 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%53.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+44.77 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN82.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 15.5%Marx Fair UP 15.5%

Jul 28, 01:03 PMJul 28, 01:07 PMJul 28, 01:10 PMJul 28, 01:14 PMJul 28, 01:17 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T13:03:57.100Z	33.5%	0.0%	-33.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:05:57.787Z	28.5%	0.0%	-28.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:08:01.851Z	55.5%	0.0%	-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:17:57.156Z	15.5%	15.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 2.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.