VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.77 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 15.5%Marx Fair UP 15.5%
Jul 28, 01:00 PMJul 28, 01:04 PMJul 28, 01:09 PMJul 28, 01:13 PMJul 28, 01:17 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T13:03:39.648Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:03:56.601Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:03:57.100Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:04:30.927Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:05:31.113Z | 28.5% | 40.5% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:05:35.223Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:05:40.296Z | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:05:57.787Z | 28.5% | 0.0% | -28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:06:30.984Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:07:34.288Z | 55.5% | 31.5% | -24.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:07:35.506Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:07:40.154Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:08:01.851Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:08:32.229Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:09:32.275Z | 64.5% | 80.5% | +16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:09:43.234Z | 80.5% | 80.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:09:50.255Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:10:06.305Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:11:36.816Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:12:01.461Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:13:41.016Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:14:02.157Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:14:36.146Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:14:54.869Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:15:31.078Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:15:44.849Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:16:01.912Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:16:31.178Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:17:31.352Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:17:57.156Z | 15.5% | 15.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 2.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.