VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +52.48 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 10:45 AMJul 28, 10:49 AMJul 28, 10:54 AMJul 28, 10:58 AMJul 28, 11:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T10:46:30.958Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:47:31.222Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:47:35.372Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:47:59.938Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:48:32.294Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:49:31.491Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:49:40.269Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:09.173Z | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:30.924Z | 61.5% | 0.0% | -61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:31.019Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:40.031Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:56.581Z | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:52:33.772Z | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:53:31.209Z | 63.5% | 0.0% | -63.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:54:35.245Z | 66.5% | 50.5% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:55:31.948Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:55:42.071Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:56:33.479Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:57:03.552Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:57:32.587Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:58:30.878Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:58:48.507Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:58:59.558Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:59:31.153Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:00:31.113Z | 0.5% | 50.5% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:00:37.125Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:00:51.147Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:01:12.392Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:01:31.110Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:03:02.376Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 58.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 45.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 52.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 45.3%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 52.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.