Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +52.48 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY58.5%45.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+52.48 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN112.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 10:45 AMJul 28, 10:50 AMJul 28, 10:54 AMJul 28, 10:58 AMJul 28, 11:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T10:45:58.310Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:47:59.938Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:50:09.173Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:51:56.581Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:58:59.558Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:59:31.153Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T11:03:02.376Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 58.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 45.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 52.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 45.3%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 52.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.