Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +56.55 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY53.5%41.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+56.55 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN132.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 53.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 10:01 AMJul 28, 10:01 AMJul 28, 10:01 AMJul 28, 10:01 AMJul 28, 10:01 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T10:01:07.312Z53.5%0.0%-53.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 53.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 41.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 56.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 41.3%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 1.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 56.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.