VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +56.55 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 30.5%
Jul 28, 10:00 AMJul 28, 10:05 AMJul 28, 10:10 AMJul 28, 10:14 AMJul 28, 10:19 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T10:04:34.915Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:04:49.344Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:04:56.388Z | 78.5% | 0.0% | -78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:05:30.961Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:06:30.977Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:06:39.443Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:06:55.212Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:07:33.951Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:08:44.875Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:08:56.273Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:08:58.162Z | 35.5% | 0.0% | -35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:09:31.157Z | 35.5% | 0.0% | -35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:10:30.941Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:10:34.950Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:10:59.888Z | 35.5% | 0.0% | -35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:11:30.944Z | 35.5% | 0.0% | -35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:12:30.988Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:12:39.802Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:13:00.373Z | 35.5% | 0.0% | -35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:13:00.675Z | 35.5% | 0.0% | -35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:13:32.035Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:14:30.810Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:14:34.700Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:14:57.209Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:15:32.271Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:16:30.845Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:16:34.561Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:17:32.103Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:18:30.804Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:19:32.342Z | 0.5% | 30.5% | +30.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 53.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 41.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 56.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 41.3%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 1.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 56.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.