VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.76 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.5%53.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+44.76 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN82.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Jul 28, 07:33 AMJul 28, 07:37 AMJul 28, 07:41 AMJul 28, 07:45 AMJul 28, 07:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T07:33:50.811Z	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:37:52.645Z	48.5%	0.0%	-48.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:41:50.865Z	53.5%	0.0%	-53.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:47:33.451Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T07:49:30.977Z	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.