VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.76 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 28, 07:31 AMJul 28, 07:36 AMJul 28, 07:40 AMJul 28, 07:45 AMJul 28, 07:49 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T07:35:35.164Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:35:51.337Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:36:30.837Z | 48.5% | 0.0% | -48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:37:35.122Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:37:37.606Z | 48.5% | 47.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:37:40.053Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:37:44.948Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:37:52.645Z | 48.5% | 0.0% | -48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:37:53.238Z | 48.5% | 0.0% | -48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:38:34.515Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:40:07.322Z | 10.5% | 0.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:40:28.112Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:40:30.881Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:41:30.896Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:41:34.872Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:41:50.865Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:42:31.904Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:43:30.797Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:43:34.410Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:43:51.767Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:44:31.124Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:45:30.883Z | 0.1% | 53.5% | +53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:45:35.615Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:45:44.749Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:45:51.765Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:46:30.970Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:47:30.879Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:47:33.451Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:48:30.822Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:49:30.977Z | 0.0% | 0.1% | +0.1 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.