VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.60 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 3.5%Marx Fair UP 3.5%
Jul 28, 07:15 AMJul 28, 07:20 AMJul 28, 07:24 AMJul 28, 07:29 AMJul 28, 07:33 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T07:19:49.123Z | 45.5% | 0.0% | -45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:20:30.885Z | 29.5% | 0.0% | -29.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:21:31.047Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:21:34.409Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:21:47.277Z | 29.5% | 0.0% | -29.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:22:33.665Z | 29.5% | 0.0% | -29.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:23:38.397Z | 53.5% | 59.5% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:23:39.722Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:23:46.271Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:23:48.994Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:24:30.862Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:25:30.823Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:25:39.794Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:25:53.331Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:26:32.042Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:27:30.926Z | 16.5% | 53.5% | +37.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:27:35.052Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:27:39.856Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:27:51.156Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:28:30.938Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:29:30.806Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:29:39.522Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:29:58.948Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:29:59.713Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:30:30.808Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:31:30.855Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:31:34.326Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:32:31.017Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:33:30.874Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:33:48.383Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 54.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.2%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 1.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.