Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.60 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.0%54.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+43.60 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN78.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 3.5%Marx Fair UP 3.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 07:15 AMJul 28, 07:20 AMJul 28, 07:24 AMJul 28, 07:29 AMJul 28, 07:33 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T07:15:51.363Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:17:50.619Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:21:47.277Z29.5%0.0%-29.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:25:53.331Z53.5%0.0%-53.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:33:48.383Z3.5%3.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 54.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.2%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 1.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.