VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 87.5%
Jul 28, 04:45 AMJul 28, 04:50 AMJul 28, 04:55 AMJul 28, 04:59 AMJul 28, 05:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T04:45:30.884Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:46:30.786Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:46:34.438Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:46:36.848Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:47:30.825Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:48:30.774Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:49:30.842Z | 59.5% | 56.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:50:30.777Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:50:39.931Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:50:45.524Z | 70.5% | 0.0% | -70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:52:33.780Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:53:48.258Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:54:39.593Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:55:01.242Z | 83.5% | 0.0% | -83.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:55:01.545Z | 83.5% | 0.0% | -83.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:58:52.394Z | 87.5% | 31.5% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:59:32.060Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:00:30.824Z | 87.5% | 31.5% | -56.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:00:37.262Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:00:39.543Z | 31.5% | 0.0% | -31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:01:30.839Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:02:30.839Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:02:34.563Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:03:30.822Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:04:30.832Z | 0.0% | 87.5% | +87.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.