VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%48.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+49.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN101.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 87.5%

Jul 28, 04:50 AMJul 28, 04:54 AMJul 28, 04:57 AMJul 28, 05:01 AMJul 28, 05:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T04:50:45.524Z	70.5%	0.0%	-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:55:01.242Z	83.5%	0.0%	-83.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:55:01.545Z	83.5%	0.0%	-83.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:59:32.060Z	31.5%	87.5%	+56.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:02:34.563Z	87.5%	87.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T05:04:30.832Z	0.0%	87.5%	+87.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.