VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.04 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 03:46 AMJul 28, 03:51 AMJul 28, 03:55 AMJul 28, 04:00 AMJul 28, 04:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T03:46:33.311Z | 41.5% | 0.0% | -41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:49:30.855Z | 41.5% | 0.0% | -41.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:50:31.019Z | 31.5% | 0.0% | -31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:51:30.793Z | 31.5% | 0.0% | -31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:52:34.355Z | 31.5% | 0.0% | -31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:53:40.164Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:54:30.910Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:55:10.187Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:55:30.856Z | 59.5% | 34.5% | -25.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:55:34.517Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:55:37.934Z | 34.5% | 0.0% | -34.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:56:30.898Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:57:30.880Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:58:30.745Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:58:50.034Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:59:30.890Z | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:00:30.927Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:01:31.060Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:01:35.690Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:02:31.037Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:03:30.877Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:04:30.911Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 40.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.0%. Marx fair UP is 40.7%.