VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.04 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY40.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+6.04 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 03:58 AMJul 28, 03:59 AMJul 28, 04:00 AMJul 28, 04:00 AMJul 28, 04:01 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T03:58:50.034Z	1.5%	0.0%	-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:59:30.890Z	1.5%	0.0%	-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:01:35.690Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 40.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.0%. Marx fair UP is 40.7%.