VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +14.92 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 28, 02:15 AMJul 28, 02:20 AMJul 28, 02:25 AMJul 28, 02:29 AMJul 28, 02:34 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T02:19:30.758Z | 38.5% | 38.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:19:34.620Z | 38.5% | 38.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:20:14.507Z | 38.5% | 0.0% | -38.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:20:30.990Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:21:30.780Z | 73.5% | 73.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:21:39.297Z | 73.5% | 73.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:22:11.511Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:22:33.711Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:23:41.188Z | 87.5% | 73.8% | -13.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:23:44.885Z | 73.5% | 73.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:23:50.241Z | 87.5% | 87.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:24:11.583Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:24:31.082Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:25:30.831Z | 85.5% | 89.6% | +4.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:25:40.537Z | 89.5% | 89.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:25:56.417Z | 89.5% | 0.0% | -89.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:26:30.780Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:27:30.911Z | 85.5% | 85.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:27:39.480Z | 85.5% | 85.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:27:55.932Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:28:30.861Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:29:30.914Z | 85.5% | 85.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:29:39.620Z | 85.5% | 85.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:29:55.718Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:30:32.426Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:31:31.276Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:31:34.941Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:32:32.462Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:33:31.094Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:34:32.300Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 31.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 18.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.7%. Marx fair UP is 30.1%.