VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +14.92 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY31.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+14.92 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 28, 02:20 AMJul 28, 02:23 AMJul 28, 02:25 AMJul 28, 02:28 AMJul 28, 02:31 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T02:20:14.507Z	38.5%	0.0%	-38.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:31:34.941Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 31.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.9 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 18.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.7%. Marx fair UP is 30.1%.