VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.50 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY41.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.50 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 04:03 AMJul 28, 04:07 AMJul 28, 04:10 AMJul 28, 04:14 AMJul 28, 04:17 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T04:03:37.895Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:10:08.011Z	56.5%	0.0%	-56.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:17:35.318Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 41.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.5 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.5%. Marx fair UP is 41.3%.