VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.50 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 04:01 AMJul 28, 04:05 AMJul 28, 04:09 AMJul 28, 04:13 AMJul 28, 04:17 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T04:01:31.060Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:02:31.038Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:03:30.877Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:03:34.707Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:03:37.895Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:04:30.911Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:05:30.820Z | 62.5% | 50.5% | -12.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:05:35.534Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:05:40.725Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:06:32.936Z | 70.5% | 0.0% | -70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:07:33.857Z | 66.5% | 59.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:07:35.272Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:07:44.497Z | 66.5% | 0.0% | -66.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:07:44.764Z | 66.5% | 0.0% | -66.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:08:54.808Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:09:30.814Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:09:39.767Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:10:08.011Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:10:30.804Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:11:30.853Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:12:30.946Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:13:30.803Z | 33.0% | 0.0% | -33.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:14:30.800Z | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:14:39.516Z | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:15:30.819Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:15:42.969Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:16:30.902Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:17:30.970Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:17:35.318Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 41.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.5%. Marx fair UP is 41.3%.