VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.95 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 64.5%
Jul 28, 07:45 AMJul 28, 07:50 AMJul 28, 07:55 AMJul 28, 07:59 AMJul 28, 08:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T07:47:50.449Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:48:30.822Z | 45.5% | 0.0% | -45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:49:30.977Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:49:44.106Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:49:50.850Z | 45.5% | 0.0% | -45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:50:30.984Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:51:34.380Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:51:51.083Z | 45.5% | 0.0% | -45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:53:36.991Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:53:45.819Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:53:50.030Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:54:30.811Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:55:30.853Z | 54.5% | 52.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:55:34.490Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:55:39.535Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:55:54.389Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:56:30.835Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:57:32.301Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:57:34.526Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:57:52.569Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:58:30.793Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:59:30.868Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:59:33.259Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T07:59:49.435Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:00:31.890Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:01:30.891Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:01:33.266Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:02:30.871Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:03:30.801Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:04:30.915Z | 99.5% | 64.5% | -35.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 59.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.0%. Marx fair UP is 59.2%.