VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.95 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+5.95 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 64.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Jul 28, 07:45 AMJul 28, 07:49 AMJul 28, 07:52 AMJul 28, 07:56 AMJul 28, 07:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T07:45:51.947Z	42.5%	0.0%	-42.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:53:50.030Z	54.5%	0.0%	-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:59:30.868Z	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:59:49.435Z	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 59.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.0%. Marx fair UP is 59.2%.