Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +9.40 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY62.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+9.40 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 03:15 AMJul 28, 03:20 AMJul 28, 03:24 AMJul 28, 03:29 AMJul 28, 03:33 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T03:15:31.263Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:16:32.236Z93.5%0.0%-93.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:21:32.008Z93.5%0.0%-93.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:22:34.178Z93.5%0.0%-93.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:23:42.696Z94.5%0.0%-94.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:24:32.280Z94.5%0.0%-94.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:25:00.044Z94.5%0.0%-94.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:25:31.228Z94.5%0.0%-94.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:26:30.875Z94.5%0.0%-94.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:27:32.463Z94.5%0.0%-94.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:28:30.858Z74.0%74.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:29:30.815Z74.0%74.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:30:30.869Z74.0%74.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:31:30.920Z74.0%74.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:31:36.201Z74.0%74.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:32:30.943Z74.0%74.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:33:32.291Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:33:33.810Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 62.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 9.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 13.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 11.1%. Marx fair UP is 64.4%.

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +9.40 pp Edge | AntiPredict