VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.30 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY61.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+8.30 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 28, 03:31 AMJul 28, 03:36 AMJul 28, 03:40 AMJul 28, 03:45 AMJul 28, 03:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T03:31:30.920Z	35.5%	74.5%	+39.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:32:30.943Z	35.5%	74.5%	+39.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:33:32.291Z	52.5%	74.5%	+22.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:34:30.900Z	52.5%	74.5%	+22.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:35:30.930Z	51.5%	74.5%	+23.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:36:30.797Z	51.5%	74.5%	+23.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:37:48.368Z	52.5%	74.5%	+22.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:38:54.330Z	74.5%	74.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:39:30.975Z	75.5%	74.5%	-1.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:39:34.966Z	74.5%	74.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:40:00.452Z	74.5%	0.0%	-74.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:41:30.871Z	75.5%	0.0%	-75.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:42:30.814Z	75.5%	0.0%	-75.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:43:30.780Z	75.5%	0.0%	-75.5 pp
2026-07-28T03:44:30.817Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:45:30.801Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:46:32.060Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:47:30.805Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:47:36.080Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:47:36.700Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:48:30.877Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:49:30.855Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 61.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.3 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 10.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.3%. Marx fair UP is 61.5%.