National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca
Ends: Aug 12, 2026, 15:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 15:36 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
STEFANOS TSITSIPAS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T03:51:46.577Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:01:56.158Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:03:18.483Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T06:09:33.808Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T07:11:14.518Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T08:13:55.672Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T09:21:41.489Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T10:20:41.982Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T11:28:04.755Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T12:29:55.277Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T13:32:12.752Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T14:34:05.928Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T15:36:24.383Z | 41.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Joao Fonseca in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Joao Fonseca. This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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