Ethereum Up or Down on October 22?
Ends: Oct 22, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 22, 2026, 16:16 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Oct 22, 2026, 16:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21T08:53:19.677Z | 50.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T09:57:54.422Z | 50.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T10:57:28.421Z | 50.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T11:58:31.028Z | 50.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T12:57:36.033Z | 50.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T13:58:59.065Z | 50.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T15:55:11.182Z | 50.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T16:36:07.556Z | 46.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T17:57:00.309Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T18:59:26.104Z | 44.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T19:58:54.491Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T20:59:50.068Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T21:58:12.621Z | 35.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T22:51:58.485Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-21T23:53:28.900Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T00:55:43.924Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T01:54:49.222Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T02:58:55.587Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T03:56:29.754Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T04:56:40.084Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T05:56:07.379Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T06:59:21.305Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T07:59:45.366Z | 3.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T08:57:21.942Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T10:56:59.189Z | 2.6% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T11:59:03.953Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T12:59:55.238Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T13:45:35.004Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T14:56:17.530Z | 0.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-22T15:44:39.121Z | 1.7% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Oct 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Oct 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.