Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 19:35 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T16:47:01.436Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T16:52:10.429Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T16:57:14.307Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:02:17.404Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:11:09.903Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:18:58.788Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:26:09.018Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:31:13.980Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:38:37.909Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:43:38.187Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:48:51.206Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:53:55.050Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:59:14.398Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:04:16.398Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:11:29.018Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:18:38.016Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:24:10.191Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:29:27.031Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:34:37.590Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:39:40.127Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:44:44.129Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:49:49.885Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:54:58.736Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:00:04.169Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:12:01.620Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:17:12.288Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:23:23.377Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:28:35.525Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:33:45.907Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:35:39.254Z | 6.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.