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Politics · POLYMARKET · LIVE

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?

Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 09:08 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 5.2%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Aug 08, 03:09 AMAug 08, 04:39 AMAug 08, 06:08 AMAug 08, 07:38 AMAug 08, 09:08 AM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T06:43:59.312Z6.5%-
2026-08-08T06:49:02.534Z6.5%-
2026-08-08T06:54:09.629Z6.5%-
2026-08-08T06:59:36.103Z6.5%-
2026-08-08T07:04:41.841Z6.5%-
2026-08-08T07:09:48.428Z6.2%-
2026-08-08T07:14:52.061Z6.2%-
2026-08-08T07:19:58.755Z6.2%-
2026-08-08T07:25:02.919Z6.2%-
2026-08-08T07:30:07.023Z6.2%-
2026-08-08T07:35:14.889Z6.2%-
2026-08-08T07:40:18.844Z6.3%-
2026-08-08T07:45:20.757Z6.3%-
2026-08-08T07:50:30.340Z6.3%-
2026-08-08T07:55:41.279Z5.8%-
2026-08-08T08:00:44.658Z5.8%-
2026-08-08T08:05:54.113Z5.3%-
2026-08-08T08:11:55.027Z5.3%-
2026-08-08T08:16:59.696Z5.7%-
2026-08-08T08:22:10.050Z5.1%-
2026-08-08T08:27:23.458Z5.2%-
2026-08-08T08:32:27.963Z5.1%-
2026-08-08T08:37:34.327Z5.0%-
2026-08-08T08:42:41.419Z5.1%-
2026-08-08T08:47:45.216Z5.0%-
2026-08-08T08:52:54.733Z5.2%-
2026-08-08T08:58:05.614Z5.2%-
2026-08-08T09:03:09.707Z5.2%-
2026-08-08T09:08:13.557Z5.2%-
2026-08-08T09:08:46.972Z5.2%-

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.