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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 3.3%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 28, 06:42 AMJul 28, 08:11 AMJul 28, 09:40 AMJul 28, 11:09 AMJul 28, 12:38 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T10:11:12.608Z2.8%-
2026-07-28T10:16:13.713Z2.8%-
2026-07-28T10:21:17.296Z2.8%-
2026-07-28T10:26:22.562Z2.8%-
2026-07-28T10:31:23.726Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T10:36:27.797Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T10:41:56.275Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T10:46:59.067Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T10:52:02.562Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T10:57:07.002Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T11:02:08.596Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T11:07:12.528Z3.1%-
2026-07-28T11:12:13.664Z3.1%-
2026-07-28T11:17:18.013Z3.1%-
2026-07-28T11:22:23.793Z3.1%-
2026-07-28T11:27:28.513Z3.1%-
2026-07-28T11:32:32.011Z3.1%-
2026-07-28T11:37:34.599Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T11:42:38.898Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T11:47:44.222Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T11:52:49.003Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T11:57:53.657Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T12:02:55.069Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T12:08:01.303Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T12:13:04.637Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T12:18:07.831Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T12:23:13.927Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T12:28:24.563Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T12:33:27.934Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T12:38:21.664Z3.3%-

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.