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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 3.3%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 08, 05:55 PMJul 13, 04:36 PMJul 18, 03:16 PMJul 23, 01:57 PMJul 28, 12:38 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-27T23:06:58.723Z4.1%-
2026-07-27T23:37:13.436Z4.1%-
2026-07-28T00:07:33.389Z3.8%-
2026-07-28T00:32:58.392Z3.8%-
2026-07-28T01:03:48.405Z3.8%-
2026-07-28T01:34:17.194Z4.0%-
2026-07-28T01:59:28.518Z4.1%-
2026-07-28T02:29:48.325Z4.0%-
2026-07-28T03:00:12.446Z4.2%-
2026-07-28T03:25:23.954Z4.2%-
2026-07-28T03:55:52.133Z3.9%-
2026-07-28T04:26:07.177Z3.9%-
2026-07-28T04:51:22.055Z4.1%-
2026-07-28T05:21:38.189Z3.9%-
2026-07-28T05:51:57.314Z3.8%-
2026-07-28T06:17:17.218Z3.8%-
2026-07-28T06:47:33.679Z3.7%-
2026-07-28T07:17:57.337Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T07:43:23.784Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T08:14:02.346Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T08:44:33.931Z2.9%-
2026-07-28T09:09:58.347Z2.9%-
2026-07-28T09:40:34.745Z2.9%-
2026-07-28T10:11:12.608Z2.8%-
2026-07-28T10:36:27.797Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T11:07:12.528Z3.1%-
2026-07-28T11:37:34.599Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T12:02:55.069Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T12:33:27.934Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T12:38:21.664Z3.3%-

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.