Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T23:06:58.723Z | 4.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T23:37:13.436Z | 4.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:07:33.389Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:32:58.392Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:03:48.405Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:34:17.194Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:59:28.518Z | 4.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:29:48.325Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:00:12.446Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:25:23.954Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:55:52.133Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:26:07.177Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:51:22.055Z | 4.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:21:38.189Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:51:57.314Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:17:17.218Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:47:33.679Z | 3.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:17:57.337Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:43:23.784Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:14:02.346Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:44:33.931Z | 2.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:09:58.347Z | 2.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:40:34.745Z | 2.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:11:12.608Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:36:27.797Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:07:12.528Z | 3.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:34.599Z | 3.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:55.069Z | 3.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:33:27.934Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:21.664Z | 3.3% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.