Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 11:56 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T00:02:27.673Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:27:57.094Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:53:39.374Z | 3.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:19:03.395Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:44:22.402Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:09:33.604Z | 4.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:34:53.664Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:00:12.446Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:25:23.954Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:50:43.316Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:16:02.222Z | 4.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:41:17.023Z | 4.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:06:28.695Z | 4.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:31:43.652Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:56:58.553Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:22:18.375Z | 3.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:47:33.679Z | 3.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:12:53.829Z | 3.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:38:21.079Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:03:52.940Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:29:13.293Z | 2.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:54:43.511Z | 2.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:20:08.906Z | 2.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:45:38.999Z | 2.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:11:12.608Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:36:27.797Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:02:08.596Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:27:28.513Z | 3.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:52:49.003Z | 3.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:56:42.609Z | 3.2% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.