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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 11:56 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 3.2%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 21, 11:57 AMJul 23, 05:57 AMJul 24, 11:57 PMJul 26, 05:56 PMJul 28, 11:56 AM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T00:02:27.673Z3.9%-
2026-07-28T00:27:57.094Z3.8%-
2026-07-28T00:53:39.374Z3.7%-
2026-07-28T01:19:03.395Z3.8%-
2026-07-28T01:44:22.402Z4.0%-
2026-07-28T02:09:33.604Z4.1%-
2026-07-28T02:34:53.664Z4.0%-
2026-07-28T03:00:12.446Z4.2%-
2026-07-28T03:25:23.954Z4.2%-
2026-07-28T03:50:43.316Z3.9%-
2026-07-28T04:16:02.222Z4.1%-
2026-07-28T04:41:17.023Z4.1%-
2026-07-28T05:06:28.695Z4.1%-
2026-07-28T05:31:43.652Z3.9%-
2026-07-28T05:56:58.553Z3.8%-
2026-07-28T06:22:18.375Z3.7%-
2026-07-28T06:47:33.679Z3.7%-
2026-07-28T07:12:53.829Z3.6%-
2026-07-28T07:38:21.079Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T08:03:52.940Z3.3%-
2026-07-28T08:29:13.293Z2.9%-
2026-07-28T08:54:43.511Z2.9%-
2026-07-28T09:20:08.906Z2.9%-
2026-07-28T09:45:38.999Z2.9%-
2026-07-28T10:11:12.608Z2.8%-
2026-07-28T10:36:27.797Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T11:02:08.596Z3.0%-
2026-07-28T11:27:28.513Z3.1%-
2026-07-28T11:52:49.003Z3.2%-
2026-07-28T11:56:42.609Z3.2%-

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.