Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Ends: Mar 2, 2027, 04:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 16:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28T12:48:08.163Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T12:53:31.590Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T12:59:05.864Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:04:11.196Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:09:20.204Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:14:59.765Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:45:20.047Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:52:00.620Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:07:28.858Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:12:37.017Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:17:47.676Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:23:02.247Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:28:09.504Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:33:54.042Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:39:03.123Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:45:02.711Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:02:07.410Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:07:54.983Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:13:06.505Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:18:21.576Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:23:31.757Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:28:38.502Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:33:46.404Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:38:54.936Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:46:14.240Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:52:27.436Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T16:07:08.362Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T16:12:16.960Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T16:17:22.164Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T16:23:25.562Z | 32.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.