Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends: Oct 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 16, 2026, 01:42 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17T11:57:25.510Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T12:59:21.042Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T13:45:16.134Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T14:47:26.086Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T15:50:18.652Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T16:53:26.385Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T17:55:16.856Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T18:57:24.490Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T19:59:18.063Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T20:47:24.409Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T21:50:07.095Z | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-17T23:32:58.958Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:57:56.694Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-20T16:55:42.775Z | 0.3% | 2.3% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-22T23:56:09.608Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-07-25T06:58:21.061Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:48:58.800Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T20:58:35.811Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-01T04:59:36.900Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:57:48.576Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T18:55:23.368Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:59:46.959Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:56:52.021Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T12:57:49.713Z | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-17T05:55:52.155Z | 0.3% | 2.3% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T01:45:31.423Z | 0.1% | 2.3% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-23T02:58:44.301Z | 0.1% | 2.3% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:55:47.739Z | 0.3% | 2.3% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-09-15T16:09:06.855Z | 0.3% | 2.3% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-09-16T01:42:54.594Z | 0.3% | 2.3% | +2.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 11:32 PM | 0.4% | 2.3% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 09:50 PM | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 08:47 PM | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 07:59 PM | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 06:57 PM | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 05:55 PM | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 04:53 PM | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 03:50 PM | 0.4% | 0.6% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.