Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 15, 2026, 08:33 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Aug 14, 2026, 16:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14T14:52:45.649Z | 1.0% | 0.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:54:51.007Z | 0.6% | 0.0% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:54:52.283Z | 0.6% | 0.0% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:58:10.438Z | 0.6% | 0.0% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:59:38.429Z | 0.6% | 0.0% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:07:19.257Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:09:14.903Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:11:47.781Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:14:09.990Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:15:55.063Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:17:43.718Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:17:45.043Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:19:52.275Z | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:21:42.524Z | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:22:12.933Z | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:23:49.940Z | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:26:55.585Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:31:12.934Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:35:43.380Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:38:49.178Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:41:49.832Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:43:38.908Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:46:37.079Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:51:05.709Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:52:44.095Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:55:42.977Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:59:35.931Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:00:47.248Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:10:31.790Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:16:18.673Z | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 04:00 PM | 0.5% | 0.0% | −0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:55 PM | 0.5% | 0.0% | −0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:52 PM | 0.3% | 0.0% | −0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:46 PM | 0.9% | 0.0% | −0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:41 PM | 0.9% | 0.0% | −0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:38 PM | 0.9% | 0.0% | −0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:35 PM | 0.5% | 0.0% | −0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:26 PM | 0.5% | 0.0% | −0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.