Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 14, 2026, 11:26 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14T07:50:35.274Z | 21.5% | 15.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T07:52:35.243Z | 21.5% | 14.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T08:14:15.271Z | 21.5% | 10.2% | -11.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T08:18:34.064Z | 21.5% | 13.1% | -8.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T08:23:40.828Z | 21.5% | 10.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T08:26:03.458Z | 21.5% | 7.7% | -13.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T08:32:39.406Z | 21.5% | 4.9% | -16.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T08:34:51.419Z | 21.5% | 3.9% | -17.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T08:40:49.916Z | 21.5% | 7.4% | -14.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T08:52:31.300Z | 21.5% | 9.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:02:15.731Z | 21.5% | 10.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:06:35.953Z | 21.5% | 8.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:08:36.507Z | 21.5% | 8.1% | -13.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:23:32.909Z | 12.0% | 8.6% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:32:34.887Z | 12.0% | 4.5% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:35:09.824Z | 12.0% | 4.0% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:37:36.454Z | 12.0% | 4.8% | -7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:40:03.088Z | 12.0% | 4.2% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:49:49.602Z | 12.0% | 4.3% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:57:41.322Z | 12.0% | 4.4% | -7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:08:41.632Z | 12.0% | 4.7% | -7.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:18:07.837Z | 12.0% | 5.2% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:24:46.822Z | 12.0% | 6.4% | -5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:33:42.783Z | 12.0% | 6.7% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:42:22.858Z | 12.0% | 6.0% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:51:39.729Z | 12.0% | 4.2% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:02:41.588Z | 12.0% | 3.5% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:07:37.639Z | 12.0% | 3.5% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:24:12.265Z | 12.0% | 4.4% | -7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:26:32.970Z | 12.0% | 4.4% | -7.6 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 11:24 AM | 21.5% | 4.4% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 11:07 AM | 21.5% | 3.5% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 11:02 AM | 21.5% | 3.5% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 10:51 AM | 21.5% | 4.2% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 10:42 AM | 21.5% | 6.0% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 10:33 AM | 21.5% | 6.7% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 10:24 AM | 21.5% | 6.4% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 10:18 AM | 21.5% | 5.2% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.