Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T23:40:09.841Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:10:32.015Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:35:43.599Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:06:07.140Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:31:18.246Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:01:33.377Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:26:53.412Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:52:07.171Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:22:27.228Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:47:42.304Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:17:56.949Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:43:17.208Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:13:58.585Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:39:16.782Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:09:28.535Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:34:39.523Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:05:13.459Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:30:27.313Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:55:55.542Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:26:12.530Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:51:26.930Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:21:48.182Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:47:07.283Z | 85.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:17:27.291Z | 85.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:42:43.697Z | 85.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:13:17.343Z | 85.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:39:51.093Z | 85.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:10:17.635Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:35:39.829Z | 85.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:21.664Z | 85.4% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.