Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 06:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 04:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
IRON WING probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T01:46:12.892Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T01:51:18.801Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T01:56:27.129Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:01:35.637Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:06:40.780Z | 66.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:12:01.588Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:17:10.746Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:22:17.342Z | 64.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:28:15.052Z | 65.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:33:27.793Z | 65.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:38:41.298Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:48:09.306Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:53:14.755Z | 67.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:59:16.427Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:04:24.805Z | 67.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:09:41.155Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:16:22.008Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:21:27.069Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:26:32.234Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:31:41.773Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:36:49.482Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:41:59.709Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:48:21.534Z | 67.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:53:33.187Z | 79.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:59:58.815Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T04:05:03.900Z | 99.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T04:10:20.006Z | 99.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Iron Wing and Nigma Galaxy in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Iron Wing" if Iron Wing win Game 1 against Nigma Galaxy. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win Game 1 against Iron Wing. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.