Bitcoin Up or Down on October 4?
Ends: Oct 4, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 15:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04T14:13:26.701Z | 92.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:15:50.754Z | 92.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:21:18.165Z | 91.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:30:09.227Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:30:24.590Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:39:00.742Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:42:37.091Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:43:34.275Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:44:38.216Z | 92.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:45:36.528Z | 92.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:46:33.553Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:52:31.974Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:53:35.605Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:07:26.903Z | 98.6% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:08:26.578Z | 98.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 3 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 4 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 3 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 4 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.