Bitcoin Up or Down on October 4?
Ends: Oct 4, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 14:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03T04:58:39.156Z | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-10-03T06:55:03.466Z | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-10-03T11:44:49.811Z | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-10-03T15:45:27.024Z | 49.5% | 48.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-10-03T16:47:15.750Z | 49.5% | 48.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-10-03T17:10:52.885Z | 49.5% | 49.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-10-03T18:14:59.656Z | 45.5% | 54.1% | +8.6 pp |
| 2026-10-03T20:16:43.046Z | 45.5% | 47.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-10-03T20:17:52.714Z | 45.5% | 47.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-10-03T21:51:49.689Z | 45.5% | 45.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-10-03T22:14:07.723Z | 45.5% | 45.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-10-04T00:29:41.809Z | 44.5% | 48.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-10-04T00:48:32.999Z | 44.5% | 48.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-10-04T03:53:14.089Z | 52.5% | 49.8% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-10-04T05:39:26.341Z | 52.5% | 52.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-10-04T05:59:44.880Z | 52.5% | 52.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-10-04T08:37:13.134Z | 89.5% | 60.0% | -29.5 pp |
| 2026-10-04T10:19:31.948Z | 89.5% | 74.0% | -15.5 pp |
| 2026-10-04T10:42:05.566Z | 89.5% | 74.0% | -15.5 pp |
| 2026-10-04T14:20:07.954Z | 92.5% | 74.0% | -18.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 04, 10:42 AM | 89.5% | 74.0% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Oct 04, 08:37 AM | 89.5% | 60.0% | −30 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Oct 04, 05:59 AM | 52.5% | 52.1% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Oct 04, 03:53 AM | 52.5% | 49.8% | −2.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Oct 04, 12:29 AM | 44.5% | 48.2% | +3.7 pp | BUY UP |
| Oct 03, 10:14 PM | 45.5% | 45.7% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Oct 03, 09:51 PM | 45.5% | 45.7% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Oct 03, 08:17 PM | 45.5% | 47.4% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 3 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 4 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 3 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 4 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.