Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends: Nov 3, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 07:27 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T03:10:03.407Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:15:06.760Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:25:18.473Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:35:29.129Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:45:43.334Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:51:29.961Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:01:38.996Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:12:28.959Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:22:46.740Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:27:48.141Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:37:51.851Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:47:56.642Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:57:58.765Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:08:15.718Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:13:24.416Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:23:40.374Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:33:49.982Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:43:59.846Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:54:13.898Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:59:22.374Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T06:09:33.808Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T06:19:49.530Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T06:29:59.819Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T06:35:03.450Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T06:45:11.052Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T06:55:20.052Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T07:05:40.405Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T07:11:14.518Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T07:21:31.963Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T07:27:07.080Z | 86.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.