Ethereum Up or Down on September 30?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 30, 2026, 16:27 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 30, 2026, 16:21 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29T17:51:11.851Z | 49.0% | 47.9% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-29T17:51:17.833Z | 49.0% | 47.9% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-29T18:45:18.774Z | 65.5% | 65.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-29T18:46:09.389Z | 65.5% | 65.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-29T19:44:03.414Z | 63.0% | 63.8% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-09-29T19:47:43.271Z | 63.0% | 63.8% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-09-29T20:51:10.191Z | 66.5% | 63.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-09-29T20:59:44.482Z | 66.5% | 63.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-09-29T21:58:36.834Z | 56.0% | 52.8% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-09-29T21:59:45.167Z | 56.0% | 52.8% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-09-29T22:46:20.539Z | 54.0% | 52.8% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-09-29T23:56:31.761Z | 54.5% | 44.4% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T00:54:19.290Z | 43.5% | 44.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T00:57:18.570Z | 43.5% | 44.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T01:57:08.368Z | 46.5% | 44.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T02:59:31.075Z | 49.5% | 44.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T03:52:53.501Z | 47.5% | 52.6% | +5.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T05:40:31.314Z | 54.5% | 52.6% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T05:40:51.446Z | 54.5% | 52.6% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T06:59:52.754Z | 39.5% | 52.6% | +13.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T07:55:02.429Z | 53.0% | 52.6% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-30T08:59:36.603Z | 46.0% | 52.6% | +6.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:54:34.838Z | 69.5% | 87.0% | +17.5 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:56:32.381Z | 78.5% | 87.0% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:20:46.729Z | 79.0% | 87.0% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:26:38.697Z | 79.0% | 87.0% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-09-30T13:42:46.381Z | 77.5% | 87.0% | +9.5 pp |
| 2026-09-30T14:58:03.963Z | 71.7% | 87.0% | +15.4 pp |
| 2026-09-30T15:57:47.628Z | 99.7% | 87.0% | -12.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T16:27:23.320Z | 100.0% | 87.0% | -13.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 12:26 PM | 79.0% | 87.0% | +8.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 30, 05:40 AM | 54.5% | 52.6% | −1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 30, 12:57 AM | 43.5% | 44.4% | +0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 09:58 PM | 56.0% | 52.8% | −3.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 29, 08:59 PM | 66.5% | 63.4% | −3.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 29, 07:44 PM | 63.0% | 63.8% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 06:45 PM | 65.5% | 65.1% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 05:51 PM | 49.0% | 47.9% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.