Ethereum Up or Down on September 30?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 30, 2026, 16:27 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 30, 2026, 16:21 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30T09:02:12.379Z | 53.0% | 45.7% | -7.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:06:57.952Z | 53.0% | 51.2% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:25:13.715Z | 53.0% | 53.9% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:30:32.060Z | 53.0% | 64.7% | +11.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:30:39.534Z | 53.0% | 64.7% | +11.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:36:02.290Z | 53.0% | 74.9% | +21.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:54:21.607Z | 53.0% | 70.2% | +17.2 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:01:57.936Z | 53.0% | 71.6% | +18.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:04:21.352Z | 53.0% | 70.0% | +17.0 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:30:56.047Z | 94.5% | 71.1% | -23.4 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:36:13.279Z | 94.5% | 80.1% | -14.4 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:36:18.665Z | 94.5% | 80.1% | -14.4 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:43:09.790Z | 94.5% | 75.2% | -19.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:46:24.468Z | 94.5% | 77.1% | -17.4 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:56:19.804Z | 94.5% | 79.3% | -15.2 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:01:11.288Z | 94.5% | 78.5% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:05:13.308Z | 94.5% | 72.2% | -22.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:10:06.803Z | 94.5% | 69.2% | -25.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:38:58.216Z | 94.5% | 82.7% | -11.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:44:40.776Z | 94.5% | 84.3% | -10.2 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:44:47.067Z | 94.5% | 84.3% | -10.2 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:52:10.946Z | 94.5% | 81.5% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:56:29.511Z | 94.5% | 81.4% | -13.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:00:10.185Z | 94.5% | 83.4% | -11.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:04:22.639Z | 94.5% | 82.7% | -11.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:08:10.105Z | 94.5% | 79.8% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:20:34.597Z | 94.5% | 82.2% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:20:52.370Z | 94.5% | 82.2% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T13:02:09.201Z | 94.5% | 82.2% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T15:58:34.765Z | 94.5% | 100.0% | +5.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 03:58 PM | 94.5% | 100.0% | +5.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 30, 12:20 PM | 94.5% | 82.2% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 12:20 PM | 94.5% | 82.2% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 12:08 PM | 94.5% | 79.8% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 12:04 PM | 94.5% | 82.7% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 12:00 PM | 94.5% | 83.4% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 11:56 AM | 94.5% | 81.4% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 11:52 AM | 94.5% | 81.5% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.