Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?
Ends: Aug 18, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 01:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17T23:36:38.984Z | 57.5% | 74.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:39:41.633Z | 57.5% | 72.8% | +15.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:42:03.188Z | 69.5% | 73.3% | +3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:49:40.888Z | 69.5% | 72.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:51:40.060Z | 69.5% | 73.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:53:40.136Z | 69.5% | 73.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:55:51.512Z | 69.5% | 74.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:03:38.825Z | 69.5% | 73.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:06:19.859Z | 69.5% | 72.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:07:43.970Z | 69.5% | 72.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:07:44.389Z | 69.5% | 72.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:09:46.861Z | 69.5% | 68.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:12:13.489Z | 69.5% | 68.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:15:16.279Z | 69.5% | 68.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:24:00.225Z | 69.5% | 72.7% | +3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:31:48.243Z | 69.5% | 70.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:31:52.709Z | 69.5% | 70.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:33:49.587Z | 69.5% | 69.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:36:42.286Z | 69.5% | 69.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:39:44.611Z | 69.5% | 70.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:50:44.572Z | 61.5% | 66.4% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:52:38.209Z | 61.5% | 66.4% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:54:38.912Z | 61.5% | 65.1% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:57:12.716Z | 61.5% | 64.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T01:01:48.572Z | 61.5% | 64.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T01:04:46.360Z | 61.5% | 63.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T01:07:41.595Z | 61.5% | 61.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T01:09:40.303Z | 61.5% | 60.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T01:11:08.810Z | 61.5% | 60.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T01:13:34.694Z | 61.5% | 60.4% | -1.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 01:11 AM | 69.5% | 60.4% | −9.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 01:09 AM | 69.5% | 60.4% | −9.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 01:07 AM | 69.5% | 61.4% | −8.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 01:04 AM | 69.5% | 63.9% | −5.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 01:01 AM | 69.5% | 64.6% | −4.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 12:57 AM | 69.5% | 64.8% | −4.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 12:54 AM | 69.5% | 65.1% | −4.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 18, 12:52 AM | 69.5% | 66.4% | −3.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.