Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?
Ends: Aug 18, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 24:30 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17T22:54:37.961Z | 69.5% | 58.5% | -11.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T22:56:52.705Z | 69.5% | 58.5% | -11.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:01:38.038Z | 69.5% | 58.4% | -11.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:03:38.217Z | 69.5% | 58.7% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:03:38.971Z | 69.5% | 58.7% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:05:34.212Z | 69.5% | 59.1% | -10.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:07:33.996Z | 69.5% | 59.4% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:07:34.522Z | 69.5% | 59.4% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:10:01.655Z | 69.5% | 61.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:22:51.135Z | 69.5% | 65.2% | -4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:30:39.491Z | 69.5% | 71.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:33:42.924Z | 69.5% | 75.4% | +5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:35:14.348Z | 69.5% | 75.4% | +5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:36:38.984Z | 69.5% | 74.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:39:41.633Z | 69.5% | 72.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:42:03.188Z | 69.5% | 73.3% | +3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:46:43.423Z | 69.5% | 71.6% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:49:40.888Z | 69.5% | 72.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:51:40.060Z | 69.5% | 73.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:53:40.136Z | 69.5% | 73.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T23:55:51.512Z | 69.5% | 74.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:03:38.825Z | 69.5% | 73.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:06:19.859Z | 69.5% | 72.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:07:43.970Z | 69.5% | 72.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:07:44.389Z | 69.5% | 72.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:09:46.861Z | 69.5% | 68.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:15:16.279Z | 69.5% | 68.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:24:00.225Z | 69.5% | 72.7% | +3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:27:48.970Z | 69.5% | 71.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T00:30:54.081Z | 69.5% | 71.8% | +2.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 12:27 AM | 63.5% | 71.8% | +8.3 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 12:24 AM | 63.5% | 72.7% | +9.2 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 12:15 AM | 63.5% | 68.2% | +4.7 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 12:09 AM | 63.5% | 68.8% | +5.3 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 12:07 AM | 63.5% | 72.3% | +8.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 12:07 AM | 63.5% | 72.3% | +8.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 12:06 AM | 63.5% | 72.3% | +8.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 12:03 AM | 63.5% | 73.7% | +10 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.