Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Ends: Jan 3, 2027, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 26, 2026, 05:10 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16T10:48:48.738Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-24T10:55:43.133Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-25T10:57:49.540Z | 44.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T17:56:53.220Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:58:46.234Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:58:22.900Z | 37.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T15:57:15.284Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T18:59:07.904Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T05:59:18.941Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T15:58:29.327Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T19:57:20.460Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T10:55:33.421Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-20T01:45:31.423Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T07:59:20.399Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T02:40:41.808Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T05:10:58.671Z | 12.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.