Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 17:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 15:13 UTCResult: SPIRITResolved: Aug 13, 2026, 15:11 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
LUMINOSITY probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T14:36:57.188Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:42:12.789Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:51:11.483Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T14:56:21.948Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:01:28.286Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:06:42.379Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:11:46.403Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:13:54.640Z | 0.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Luminosity and Spirit in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 13 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Luminosity" if Luminosity win Map 2 against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win Map 2 against Luminosity. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.