Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group Stage
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 14:35 UTCMarket data: Aug 14, 2026, 12:42 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
XTREME GAMING probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14T09:18:38.940Z | 68.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T09:29:45.643Z | 63.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T09:34:53.563Z | 83.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T09:48:08.307Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T09:53:14.118Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T10:06:16.887Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T10:11:26.582Z | 87.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T10:23:23.090Z | 92.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T10:33:38.968Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T10:39:12.075Z | 96.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T10:49:42.611Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T11:00:01.108Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T11:05:12.667Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T11:15:32.085Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T11:29:24.469Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T11:34:37.962Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T11:46:47.669Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T11:51:51.345Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T12:02:24.677Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T12:16:19.641Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T12:21:29.694Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T12:26:37.652Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T12:37:00.186Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 3 match between Xtreme Gaming and HULIGANI in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win the match against HULIGANI. This market will resolve to "HULIGANI" if HULIGANI win the match against Xtreme Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.