VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +24.61 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY77.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+24.61 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-8.5%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Aug 02, 11:10 PMAug 02, 11:12 PMAug 02, 11:14 PMAug 02, 11:16 PMAug 02, 11:19 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-02T23:10:12.772Z	0.5%	60.5%	+60.0 pp
2026-08-02T23:11:39.552Z	60.5%	60.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T23:14:54.305Z	20.5%	100.0%	+79.5 pp
2026-08-02T23:18:45.439Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-02T23:19:02.232Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 77.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 24.6 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 28.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 26.6%. Marx fair UP is 79.9%.