VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +48.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY43.5%49.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+48.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Aug 01, 08:45 AMAug 01, 08:47 AMAug 01, 08:49 AMAug 01, 08:51 AMAug 01, 08:54 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-01T08:45:03.297Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:45:17.708Z	43.5%	49.5%	+6.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:46:03.375Z	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:46:17.404Z	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:47:08.674Z	43.5%	43.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:47:20.302Z	43.5%	43.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:48:13.975Z	43.5%	43.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:49:48.713Z	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:51:57.775Z	49.5%	0.0%	-49.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:51:59.143Z	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:52:18.097Z	99.5%	0.0%	-99.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:53:25.465Z	100.0%	0.0%	-100.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:54:06.353Z	99.5%	0.0%	-99.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 43.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 51.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.