VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.27 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Aug 01, 09:35 AMAug 01, 09:37 AMAug 01, 09:39 AMAug 01, 09:42 AMAug 01, 09:44 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T09:35:47.205Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:35:54.609Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:37:29.217Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:40:32.877Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:41:41.942Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:41:50.076Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:42:10.242Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:42:21.377Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:43:08.786Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:44:07.481Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.2%, gross edge 49.7%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.3%.