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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-6.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 90.5%Marx Fair UP 90.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Aug 01, 08:31 AMAug 01, 08:33 AMAug 01, 08:35 AMAug 01, 08:37 AMAug 01, 08:39 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T08:31:07.626Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:32:22.619Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:32:52.279Z98.5%49.5%-49.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:33:56.697Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:35:09.231Z98.5%98.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:35:22.824Z98.5%98.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:36:11.986Z98.5%98.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:37:21.866Z100.0%90.5%-9.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:38:04.706Z98.5%90.5%-8.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:38:12.413Z90.5%90.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:39:14.017Z90.5%90.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict