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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +25.11 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%73.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+25.11 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN34.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 2.5%Marx Fair UP 2.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Aug 01, 07:30 AMAug 01, 07:32 AMAug 01, 07:34 AMAug 01, 07:36 AMAug 01, 07:39 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T07:30:15.111Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-08-01T07:30:45.215Z38.5%0.0%-38.5 pp
2026-08-01T07:31:19.450Z29.5%29.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:31:31.676Z29.5%29.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:32:07.790Z29.5%29.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:33:09.533Z29.5%0.0%-29.5 pp
2026-08-01T07:34:01.966Z29.5%0.0%-29.5 pp
2026-08-01T07:34:20.102Z29.5%0.0%-29.5 pp
2026-08-01T07:35:09.109Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:35:36.109Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:36:28.134Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:37:32.623Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:37:36.208Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:38:42.544Z0.0%2.5%+2.5 pp
2026-08-01T07:39:14.087Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 73.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 25.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 73.0%, gross edge 28.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 25.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +25.11 pp Edge | AntiPredict