VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.88 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 2.5%Marx Fair UP 2.5%
Jul 31, 06:48 AMJul 31, 06:49 AMJul 31, 06:51 AMJul 31, 06:52 AMJul 31, 06:54 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T06:48:30.051Z | 4.5% | 4.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T06:48:30.724Z | 3.5% | 4.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T06:48:50.985Z | 2.5% | 3.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T06:48:51.329Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T06:49:21.485Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T06:50:27.157Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T06:50:31.547Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T06:51:51.492Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T06:54:16.665Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T06:54:16.958Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 53.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.9%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.