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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.40 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%11.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY40.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.40 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 31, 02:45 AMJul 31, 02:47 AMJul 31, 02:49 AMJul 31, 02:51 AMJul 31, 02:53 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T02:45:31.664Z50.5%40.0%-10.5 pp
2026-07-31T02:46:31.677Z50.5%40.0%-10.5 pp
2026-07-31T02:47:01.002Z50.5%40.0%-10.5 pp
2026-07-31T02:47:26.135Z50.5%40.0%-10.5 pp
2026-07-31T02:48:24.918Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T02:48:39.234Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T02:48:59.141Z50.5%92.4%+41.9 pp
2026-07-31T02:49:24.444Z99.9%92.4%-7.4 pp
2026-07-31T02:50:18.399Z99.9%92.4%-7.4 pp
2026-07-31T02:50:23.927Z99.9%92.4%-7.4 pp
2026-07-31T02:50:58.146Z99.9%99.8%-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T02:51:54.742Z100.0%99.8%-0.2 pp
2026-07-31T02:52:14.740Z99.9%99.5%-0.3 pp
2026-07-31T02:52:53.167Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T02:53:13.060Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 40.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 11.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 11.4%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 0.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.4%. Marx fair UP is 40.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.40 pp Edge | AntiPredict