Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 08:35 PMJul 30, 08:37 PMJul 30, 08:39 PMJul 30, 08:41 PMJul 30, 08:43 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T20:35:13.957Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:36:59.340Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:37:28.717Z20.5%20.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:37:52.190Z20.5%20.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:38:18.230Z20.5%100.0%+79.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:38:42.511Z20.5%100.0%+79.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:39:26.100Z0.5%20.5%+20.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:40:11.556Z20.5%20.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:40:31.792Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:40:31.927Z20.5%0.5%-20.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:40:54.702Z20.5%20.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T20:41:24.421Z20.5%100.0%+79.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:41:28.410Z20.5%100.0%+79.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:42:25.187Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-30T20:43:28.611Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.