VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +59.85 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 2.5%Marx Fair UP 2.5%
Jul 30, 04:55 PMJul 30, 04:57 PMJul 30, 04:59 PMJul 30, 05:02 PMJul 30, 05:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T16:55:00.867Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:56:22.795Z | 51.5% | 50.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:56:32.417Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:57:05.418Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:57:23.805Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:57:56.633Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:58:22.720Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:59:22.905Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:59:40.544Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T16:59:55.926Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:00:22.851Z | 2.5% | 100.0% | +97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:01:22.643Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:02:02.287Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:02:22.886Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:03:22.586Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T17:04:36.807Z | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 38.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 59.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 41.0%, gross edge 59.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 56.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.