VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.24 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY11.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+36.24 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Jul 30, 08:11 AMJul 30, 08:13 AMJul 30, 08:14 AMJul 30, 08:15 AMJul 30, 08:16 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T08:11:54.086Z	54.5%	54.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:11:54.289Z	54.5%	54.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:12:42.804Z	54.5%	0.0%	-54.5 pp
2026-07-30T08:13:12.415Z	49.5%	0.0%	-49.5 pp
2026-07-30T08:13:44.941Z	54.5%	0.0%	-54.5 pp
2026-07-30T08:14:48.394Z	5.5%	54.5%	+49.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:15:10.441Z	54.5%	54.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:15:30.586Z	5.5%	5.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:15:48.193Z	0.5%	5.5%	+5.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:16:29.241Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-30T08:16:52.546Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 11.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 36.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 38.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.2%. Marx fair UP is 11.5%.