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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.81 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY29.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+17.81 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 09:30 AMJul 30, 09:32 AMJul 30, 09:33 AMJul 30, 09:35 AMJul 30, 09:36 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T09:30:40.063Z49.5%65.4%+15.9 pp
2026-07-30T09:30:57.319Z67.5%65.4%-2.1 pp
2026-07-30T09:31:18.195Z67.5%65.4%-2.1 pp
2026-07-30T09:31:56.913Z67.5%67.4%-0.1 pp
2026-07-30T09:32:08.648Z67.5%67.4%-0.1 pp
2026-07-30T09:32:57.852Z67.5%56.4%-11.1 pp
2026-07-30T09:33:05.376Z56.5%56.4%-0.1 pp
2026-07-30T09:33:19.608Z67.5%67.4%-0.1 pp
2026-07-30T09:33:41.341Z67.5%86.2%+18.7 pp
2026-07-30T09:33:59.288Z67.5%86.2%+18.7 pp
2026-07-30T09:35:09.627Z67.5%86.2%+18.7 pp
2026-07-30T09:36:15.658Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:36:44.483Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 29.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 21.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 18.7%. Marx fair UP is 29.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.81 pp Edge | AntiPredict