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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.59 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%39.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY29.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+28.59 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 12:05 AMJul 30, 12:07 AMJul 30, 12:09 AMJul 30, 12:11 AMJul 30, 12:13 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T00:05:17.483Z74.5%29.6%-44.9 pp
2026-07-30T00:06:54.591Z50.5%29.6%-20.9 pp
2026-07-30T00:07:52.321Z74.5%29.6%-44.9 pp
2026-07-30T00:08:54.365Z74.5%74.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:08:58.538Z74.5%74.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:09:03.862Z74.5%74.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:09:45.098Z98.5%51.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-30T00:09:53.052Z51.0%51.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:10:06.726Z98.5%98.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:10:49.315Z99.5%81.7%-17.8 pp
2026-07-30T00:11:06.327Z51.0%81.7%+30.7 pp
2026-07-30T00:11:30.273Z99.5%81.7%-17.8 pp
2026-07-30T00:11:42.596Z99.5%81.7%-17.8 pp
2026-07-30T00:13:29.833Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 29.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 39.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 39.6%, gross edge 31.4%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.6%. Marx fair UP is 29.6%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.59 pp Edge | AntiPredict