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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +77.34 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%21.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+77.34 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 11:20 PMJul 29, 11:22 PMJul 29, 11:24 PMJul 29, 11:26 PMJul 29, 11:28 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T23:20:03.925Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:20:42.135Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:21:57.792Z23.5%23.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:22:22.873Z23.5%23.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:22:44.638Z23.5%23.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:23:42.845Z23.5%100.0%+76.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:24:18.899Z23.5%100.0%+76.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:24:42.292Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:25:42.381Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:25:50.658Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:26:18.938Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:26:42.670Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:28:15.278Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 21.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 77.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 21.0%, gross edge 79.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 77.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +77.34 pp Edge | AntiPredict