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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.74 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.74 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN85.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 97.5%Marx Fair UP 97.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 11:15 PMJul 29, 11:18 PMJul 29, 11:20 PMJul 29, 11:22 PMJul 29, 11:24 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T23:15:59.814Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:16:18.578Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:16:43.788Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:17:42.829Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:17:58.721Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:18:12.596Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:18:51.345Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:19:42.890Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:20:03.914Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:20:42.096Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:20:51.744Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:21:54.939Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T23:22:44.638Z97.5%97.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:24:21.202Z97.5%97.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.74 pp Edge | AntiPredict